Today in one sentence: Trump claimed his tariff plan is “going very well” as global markets plunged in response; Trump’s tariff plan appears to have been generated by an AI chatbot; Trump's tariffs, imposed on nearly every U.S. trading partner, excluded Russia and North Korea; Senators introduced a bipartisan bill to limit Trump’s authority to impose tariffs without congressional approval; the Trump administration said it will withhold federal education funding from schools unless officials certify they have eliminated all diversity, equity, and inclusion programs it considers illegal; and the Pentagon’s acting inspector general launched a probe into Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth’s use of the encrypted messaging app Signal to discuss a U.S. airstrike against Houthi militants in Yemen.

1/ Trump claimed his tariff plan is “going very well” as global markets plunged in response. “The markets are going to boom, the stock is going to boom, the country is going to boom,” Trump said shortly before the Dow, Nasdaq, and the S&P 500 all suffered steep declines – erasing roughly $3.1 trillion in market value. It was their largest one-day decline since March 2020. Despite the sell-off, Trump pointed to vague investment pledges, saying: “We have almost a seven trillion dollars of investment coming into our country.” He offered no details. Economists, meanwhile, warned the tariffs could raise prices, slow growth, and trigger layoffs. “If these tariffs stay on for three months, there’ll be a recession,” economist Luke Tilley said. Chuck Schumer called the move “one of the dumbest decisions in history.” Nevertheless, the White House told surrogates that Trump’s tariffs are not a starting point for trade talks and instructed aides to frame them as a national emergency response, not a negotiating tactic. (CNBC / Bloomberg / Associated Press / NPR / Washington Post / New York Times / Wall Street Journal / NBC News / CNN / Bloomberg / Axios / ABC News / Washington Post)

  • Trump goes crazy on trade. “If you had any hopes that Trump would step back from the brink, this announcement, between the very high tariff rates and the complete falsehoods about what other countries do, should kill them.” (Paul Krugman)

  • Trump’s mindless tariffs will cause economic havoc. “If you failed to spot America being ‘looted, pillaged, raped and plundered by nations near and far’ or it being cruelly denied a ‘turn to prosper’, then congratulations: you have a firmer grip on reality than the president of the United States.” (The Economist)

  • Will malignant stupidity kill the world economy? “Trump’s tariffs are a disaster. His policy process is worse.” (Paul Krugman)

  • A third global recession in 20 years looms. “A truly enormous shock is needed to tip the entire global economy into recession. Since World War II, there have been two of these events: the financial crisis of 2008-09, and the coronavirus pandemic of 2020.” (Axios)

  • “This could get much uglier’: The fatal flaw in Trump’s trade war. “Trump’s radical tariff program is aimed at restoring U.S. manufacturing greatness. He’s getting in his own way.” (Politico)

  • Launching the economic version of the Iraq War. “Tariffs are like military actions. They’re ‘good’ or ‘bad’ based on specifics: Why, how, at what cost, toward what end. Donald Trump has just committed U.S. power in a profoundly stupid way.” (James Fallows)

  • It’s the end of the world’s economic order as we know it. “In the short term, economists anticipate higher global inflation and slower world economic growth from Trump’s tariff suite. But the potential economic delinking that plays out alongside those conditions might be more daunting.” (Axios)

2/ Trump’s tariff plan appears to have been generated by an AI chatbot. While the White House claimed it used a unique formula to set new tariffs, the numbers match a simple calculation used by ChatGPT, Gemini, Claude, and Grok when asked for a quick way to fix trade deficits. The method divides the U.S. trade deficit with a country by that country’s exports to the U.S., then cuts the result in half. Despite the chatbots warning that the math ignores how trade actually works, Trump pushed ahead anyway. Economist James Surowiecki called the approach “extraordinary nonsense.” (The Verge / CNBC / Ars Technica / Twitter (X))

3/ Trump’s tariffs, imposed on nearly every U.S. trading partner, excluded Russia and North Korea. The White House said both were left off because they already faced “extremely high tariffs” and sanctions made trade “not meaningful.” But the U.S. still imported billions in goods from Russia last year – more than it did from some of the small, uninhabited territories that were included. Even islands with no permanent residents or economic activity, like Heard Island and Jan Mayen, were hit with 10% tariffs. (The Hill / Axios / Washington Post / CNN / ABC News / Washington Post)

4/ Senators introduced a bipartisan bill to limit Trump’s authority to impose tariffs without congressional approval. The Trade Review Act of 2025 would require a president to notify Congress within 48 hours of imposing a tariff and allow Congress 60 days to approve or reject it. Chuck Grassley said the bill aims to “reassert Congress’ constitutional role” over trade, while Maria Cantwell argued that “Congress has a duty to stop actions that will cause [Americans] harm.” The bill follows Trump’s announcement of new tariffs on over 100 countries and a Senate vote to nullify his emergency order imposing 25% tariffs on Canada. The Senate vote was largely symbolic, and the bill is unlikely to move forward in the House, where Republicans have blocked similar efforts. (Politico / Washington Post / NBC News / New York Times / Politico / NPR)

The midterm elections are in 579 days.

✏️ Notables.

  1. The Trump administration said it will withhold federal education funding from schools unless officials certify they have eliminated all diversity, equity, and inclusion programs it considers illegal. The Education Department gave states 10 days to sign and return a certification letter tied to compliance with federal civil rights law. (New York Times / Associated Press / Axios)

  2. The Senate confirmed TV personality Mehmet Oz to lead the Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services in a 53–45 party-line vote. Oz will oversee $1.5 trillion in spending and coverage for 160 million people. (NBC News / Politico)

  3. The Pentagon’s acting inspector general launched a probe into Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth’s use of the encrypted messaging app Signal to discuss a U.S. airstrike against Houthi militants in Yemen. A journalist was accidentally added to the Signal chat, which saw Hegseth sharing strike details, including timing and military assets, before the operation began. (ABC News / CNN / Associated Press / Bloomberg)

  4. Trump fired at least six National Security Council staffers following a White House meeting with far-right activist Laura Loomer, who accused several aides of disloyalty. Loomer reportedly gave Trump a list of officials she claimed were working against his agenda and pressed for their removal during a 30-minute Oval Office meeting. (The Guardian / New York Times / NBC News / Washington Post / CNN)

📢 Democracy doesn’t run on vibes. Do something that matters.

  1. Nationwide protests are planned for Saturday, April 5, against Trump and his administration. Find your local event here. More about the event here.
Two years ago today: Day 804: "Crystal clear."
Five years ago today: Day 1170: "You don't have to do it."
Six years ago today: Day 804: Not inclined.
Seven years ago today: Day 439: We've got your back.
Eight years ago today: Day 74: Nuclear option.