Today in one sentence: Trump approved U.S. strike plans on Iran but held back a final order, calling it his "ultimate ultimatum" for Tehran to dismantle its nuclear program; the Supreme Court upheld Tennessee’s ban on puberty blockers and hormone therapy for transgender minors; the Trump administration ordered the national suicide hotline to shut down its LGBTQ youth services; the FDA approved a twice-yearly injectable drug that nearly eliminated new HIV infections in two clinical trials; the Federal Reserve held interest rates steady at 4.25% to 4.5% and raised its inflation forecast, but signaled that it still expects two cuts later this year; Trump called Fed Chair Jerome Powell “a stupid person” and demanded a 2.5-point rate cut, which would be one of the largest in Fed history; and Social Security and Medicare will run out of reserve funds sooner than expected.

1/ Trump approved U.S. strike plans on Iran but held back a final order, calling it his “ultimate ultimatum” for Tehran to dismantle its nuclear program. Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, however, rejected Trump’s demand for an “unconditional surrender” and warned that U.S. intervention would bring “irreparable damage.” While Trump hasn’t made a final decision about whether to strike Iran, he suggested that “the next week is going to be big” and said “I like to make a final decision one second before it’s due, you know, because things change.” Earlier in the day, Trump told reporters: “I may do it, I may not do it. Nobody knows what I’m going to do.” The U.S. military, meanwhile, sent a second carrier strike group and F-22 fighters to the region. Trump said he told Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu to “keep going” and claimed Iran is “defenseless” under Israeli pressure. (Wall Street Journal / New York Times / Associated Press / Politico / Washington Post / CNBC / Axios / CNN)

2/ The Supreme Court upheld Tennessee’s ban on puberty blockers and hormone therapy for transgender minors, clearing the way for similar bans in at least 24 states to remain in effect. Tennessee’s law prohibits treatment “for the purpose of enabling a minor to identify with, or live as, a purported identity inconsistent with the minor’s sex” at birth. The 6-3 ruling rejected claims that the law violates the Constitution’s equal protection clause, with Chief Justice Roberts writing that “the Equal Protection Clause does not resolve these disagreements” over transgender care and that such questions belong to “the people, their elected representatives and the democratic process.” Justice Sotomayor dissented, saying the court “abandons transgender children and their families to political whims” and accused the majority of enabling “sex-based classification that is plain on the face of this statute.” (Associated Press / NPR / NBC News / Politico / CNN / Washington Post / ABC News / New York Times)

3/ The Trump administration ordered the national suicide hotline to shut down its LGBTQ youth services. The Department of Health and Human Services claimed it would “no longer silo LGB+ youth services,” omitting the “T” in its announcement, and said the program’s $33 million in congressionally directed funds had run out. The Trevor Project, which handled the calls, said it served over 231,000 LGBTQ youth through the 988 hotline last year, and warned the cut “could halve the number of people we serve.” The service will be shut down on July 17. (New York Times / Mother Jones / The 19th / Salon / Axios)

4/ The FDA approved a twice-yearly injectable drug that nearly eliminated new HIV infections in two clinical trials. The drug, sold as Yeztugo, is more effective than existing oral prevention drugs, but will cost $28,218 per year in the U.S. before insurance. It also arrives as the Trump administration has proposed a 35% cut to HIV prevention funding and shut down key CDC and NIH programs. (NBC News / Associated Press / New York Times)

5/ The Federal Reserve held interest rates steady at 4.25% to 4.5% and raised its inflation forecast, but signaled that it still expects two cuts later this year. Hours earlier, Trump called Fed Chair Jerome Powell “a stupid person” and demanded a 2.5-point rate cut, which would be one of the largest in Fed history. Powell said the Fed needs “more confidence about the path of inflation” and pointed to Trump’s tariffs as a key obstacle: “Without tariffs that confidence would be building.” Seven of the 19 Fed officials now expect no rate cuts in 2025, up from four in March, and the Fed raised its inflation forecast from 2.7% to 3%. Despite Trump’s public pressure, Powell said the Fed’s priority is a “solid American economy with a strong labor market and price stability.” (Politico / Washington Post / Wall Street Journal / Bloomberg / CNBC / CNN / NBC News / New York Times)

  • The Senate passed the GENIUS Act in a 68-30 vote, creating the first federal rules for stablecoins. The legislative also clears the way for Trump to profit from his crypto ventures while in office. The bill requires stablecoins to hold dollar-for-dollar reserves in short-term government debt and allows oversight by state or federal regulators. Lawmakers, however, rejected amendments to block Trump and other public officials from profiting off crypto ventures. The House must now choose to pass the Senate version or negotiate its own. (Bloomberg / Axios / New York Times)

6/ Social Security and Medicare will run out of reserve funds sooner than expected. Social Security’s combined trust funds are now projected to be depleted in 2034 – one year earlier than previously estimated – while Medicare’s hospital insurance fund is set to run out in 2033, three years earlier than last year’s projection. The shift follows a bipartisan law passed in 2024 that expanded benefits for nearly 3 million public-sector workers, along with revised assumptions for lower fertility and slower wage growth. If Congress doesn’t act, Social Security will only pay 81% of scheduled benefits and Medicare 89% once the trust funds are exhausted. (Politico / NPR / CNN / Washington Post / Wall Street Journal)

The midterm elections are in 503 days.

Last year today: Day 1246: "A good day."
Six years ago today: Day 880: Let's see.
Seven years ago today: Day 515: Not on my watch.