• The presidential election is 8 days away.

  • 📈 Polling Vibes.

  • Harris +1.0 points (New York Times)
    Harris +1.4 points (FiveThirtyEight)
    Harris +1.1 points (Nate Silver)
    Harris +1.4 points (The Economist)
    Trump +0.2 points (RealClearPolitics)
    Harris +1.4 points (Split Ticket)

  • 🔮 Forecasting Vibes.

  • Trump wins 54 times out of 100. Harris wins 48 times out of 100. (FiveThirtyEight)
    Trump wins 55 times out of 100. Harris wins 46 times out of 100. (Nate Silver)
    Trump wins 54 times out of 100. Harris wins 47 times out of 100. (The Economist)
    Trump wins 53 times out of 100. Harris wins 49 times out of 100. (JHK Forecasts)
    Harris wins 53 times out of 100. Trump wins 47 times out of 100. (Split Ticket)
    Harris wins 53 times out of 100. Trump wins 46 times out of 100. (CNalysis)
    Trump wins 62 times out of 100. Harris wins 40 times out of 100. (Election Betting Odds)

  • Editor’s note: Forecasts are probabilities, not certainties. They reflect the current vibes, not the final result.

  • 💡 Poll results depend on pollster choices as much as voters’ decisions. “Simple changes in how to weight a single poll can move the Harris-Trump margin 8 points.” (Good Authority)

1/ Trump called the United States a “garbage can for the world.” At a rally in Arizona on Thursday, Trump said, “We’re a dumping ground. We’re like a – we’re like a garbage can for the world. That’s what, that’s what’s happened to us. We’re like a garbage can.” Then on Friday in Texas, Trump again said: “We’re like a garbage can. First time I said it was last night […] I said it – I don’t know, just came out, ‘garbage can.’ We’re like a garbage can for the rest of the world to dump the people they don’t want.” Trump made the comments as he criticized the Biden-Harris administration for its handling of the border. (ABC News / Politico / New Republic / Vanity Fair / The Guardian)

2/ At a rally where Trump was expected to deliver his closing argument to voters before Election Day, the event instead devolved into a spectacle of grievances, misogyny, and racism. Billed as Trump’s homecoming, the Madison Square Garden event featured speakers for roughly five hours who referred to Puerto Rico as a “floating island of garbage,” called Kamala Harris “the devil,” likened Harris to a prostitute with “pimp handlers,” mocked a Black man in the audience with a reference to watermelon, and made “jokes” that Latinos “love making babies. There’s no pulling out. They come inside, just like they do to our country.” Other speakers referred to Harris as “the Antichrist” and another called her husband, Doug Emhoff, “a crappy Jew.” And, Stephen Miller declared that “America is for Americans and Americans only.” When Trump took the stage, he announced that “The Republican Party has really become the party of inclusion” before telling the crowd that the U.S. “is now an occupied country” and accusing Democrats of being the “enemy from within.” Harris, meanwhile, accused Trump of stoking division and “trying to divide our country” after speakers making bigoted and misogynistic remarks. Harris, who referred to the rally as “that nonsense last night at Madison Square Garden,” said her supporters wanted “a president of the United States who is about uplifting the people, and not berating, not calling America a garbage can.” (New York Times / Associated Press / Washington Post / CNN / Politico / Axios / NBC News)

3/ Mike Johnson and Mitch McConnell – ignoring Trump’s recent comments referring to Kamala Harris as a “fascist,” “marxist,” “communist” and “comrade” – asked Harris to “stop escalating the threat environment” after she agreed that Trump is a fascist. The two top Republicans accused Harris of fanning “the flames beneath a boiling cauldron of political animus” and said her words “seem to dare it to boil over.” Despite Trump recently also referring to Harris as a fascist during a Michigan rally, Johnson and McConnell said “She must abandon the base and irresponsible rhetoric that endangers both American lives and institutions.” (Politico / The Hill / Axios)

  • More than a dozen former Trump administration officials on came out in support of former chief of staff John Kelly, who said Trump fits the definition of a fascist and would govern like a dictator and has no concept of the Constitution. “We applaud General Kelly for highlighting in stark details the danger of a second Trump term. Like General Kelly, we did not take the decision to come forward lightly,” the letter said. “We are all lifelong Republicans who served our country. However, there are moments in history where it becomes necessary to put country over party. This is one of those moments.” (NBC News / Politico)
  • Extremists inspired by conspiracy theories pose major threat to 2024 elections, U.S. intelligence warns. “Candidates, elected officials, election workers, members of the media and judges involved in election cases are among those U.S. intelligence officials identified as targets.” (NBC News)
  • Before Election Day, Trump is increasingly sowing doubts about the results. “Trump is already accusing Democrats of trying to cheat and steal the election from him, laying the groundwork to question the results if he loses.” (NBC News)

4/ Chinese hackers targeted Trump and JD Vance’s phones. It’s unclear what communications data, if any, was taken or observed, but the hack is believed to have compromised the phones of staffers. The FBI notified the Trump campaign after the attack was discovered by Verizon. The hackers reportedly were also targeting some Democrats, including staff members of Kamala Harris’s campaign and prominent figures on Capitol Hill, including Chuck Schumer, as well as some members of the media and other prominent Americans. “They made very clear it wasn’t just us,” a person familiar with the briefing said. (Washington Post / New York Times)

5/ The Philadelphia District Attorney sued Elon Musk to stop his $1 million daily giveaways to Pennsylvania voters, calling it an “illegal lottery scheme.” Philadelphia District Attorney Larry Krasner said Musk’s pro-Trump super PAC, which has already given out more than $9 million, is using “deceptive, vague and misleading statements that create the likelihood of confusion or misunderstanding.” Krasner added: “America PAC and Musk are lulling Philadelphia citizens – and others in the Commonwealth (and other swing states in the upcoming election) – to give up their personal identifying information and make a political pledge in exchange for the chance to win $1 million,” the lawsuit alleges. “That is a lottery. And it is indisputably an unlawful lottery.” (Axios / CNN / ABC News / CNBC)

  • Elon Musk, enemy of “open borders,” launched his career working illegally. “Investors in Musk’s first company worried about “our founder being deported” and gave him a deadline for obtaining a work visa.” (Washington Post)

6/ The House Armed Services Committee and NASA Administrator Bill Nelson called for an investigation into Elon Musk after it was reported that Musk has been in regular contact with Putin since late 2022. Musk has reportedly discussed “personal topics, business and geopolitical tensions” with Putin, raising national security concerns as SpaceX’s relationships with NASA and the U.S. military may have granted Musk access to sensitive government information and US intelligence. “I don’t know if that story is true. I think it should be investigated,” Nelson said. “If it’s true there have been multiple conversations with Elon Musk and the president of Russia, then that would be concerning, particularly for NASA and the Department of Defense.” Musk’s company, SpaceX, has multiple contracts with the Defense Department and NASA. In one instance, Putin pressured Muskto withhold Starlink from Taiwan as a favor to Chinese President Xi Jinping. Musk also offered Starlink to Ukraine at the onset of the war, but has since stopped funding them and restricted their use by the Ukrainian military. Starlink is reportedly being used by the Russian army now. (Wall Street Journal / Semafor / Politico / CNN / CNBC)

poll/ 49% of voters said Trump is a fascist, defined as “a political extremist who seeks to act as a dictator, disregards individual rights and threatens or uses force against their opponents.” (ABC News)

poll/ About 40% of voters say they are “extremely” or “very” concerned about attempts to violently overturn the results after the presidential election. About 1 in 3 voters say they are “extremely” or “very” concerned about attempts by local or state election officials to stop the results from being finalized. (Associated Press)

✏️ Notables.

  1. Economists Warn of New Inflation Hazards After Election. “Both candidates have big spending plans, but economists say Trump’s proposals carry the greater risk of stoking price increases.” (Wall Street Journal)

  2. Trump lays groundwork to challenge potential Harris win with false narrative on noncitizen voters. “Experts say the efforts by Republicans, spread throughout multiple states, have been sowing public mistrust on whether noncitizens are voting.” (The 19th)

  3. How Trump may try to challenge the election results if he loses again. “If Harris wins, election officials and experts worry Trump and his supporters will not accept that outcome.” (Washington Post)

  4. If Harris wins, will the Supreme Court steal the election for Trump? “It depends on how much Harris can run up the score.” (Vox)

  5. “Put Them in Trauma”: Inside a Key MAGA Leader’s Plans for a New Trump Agenda. “In private speeches delivered in 2023 and 2024, Russell Vought, who served as Trump’s director of the Office of Management and Budget, described his work crafting legal justifications so that military leaders or government lawyers would not stop Trump’s executive actions.” (ProPublica)

  6. The people most likely to believe in political violence may surprise you. “Researchers have identified two groups more likely to endorse political violence. They aren’t who you think.” (Vox)

  7. How politics is stressing us out more than ever. “The 2024 election cycle may be remembered for redefining anxiety and drawing attention to the unique way politics stresses Americans out.” (Axios)