Today in one sentence: The presidential election is today; more than 83 million Americans voted early in the first presidential election since the Jan. 6, 2021, attack on the Capitol; control of the House and Senate is also on the line with 435 House seats and 34 Senate seats up for grabs; voters in 10 states will decide whether to cement reproductive rights in their state constitutions; and in 62 days, Kamala Harris will preside over a joint session of Congress to count the 2024 electoral votes where she'll either declare herself the winner – marking the first woman elected president – or announce that Trump is returning to the White House as the second president to be elected to two nonconsecutive terms – and at 78 years old, the oldest person ever elected president.

  • The presidential election is TODAY.

  • 🗳️ When polls close in the battleground states:

  • Georgia: 7 pm (Trump +0.8)
    North Carolina: 7:30 pm (Trump +0.9)
    Michigan (most): 8 pm (Harris +1.0)
    Pennsylvania: 8 pm (Harris +0.2)
    Arizona: 9 pm (Trump +2.1)
    Michigan: 9 pm (Harris +1.0)
    Wisconsin: 9 pm (Harris +1.0)
    Nevada: 10 pm (Trump +0.3)

  • All times Eastern. Polling averages from FiveThirtyEight.

  • Editor’s note: The 2020 election took nearly 90 hours after the final polls closed until Biden was declared president-elect. It probably won’t take that long this time: Near-complete results from Georgia, Michigan, and North Carolina are expected on election night, along with most of Wisconsin’s results by Wednesday morning. Pennsylvania, Arizona, and Nevada, meanwhile, will likely be counting ballots through Wednesday.

  • 📈 Final Polling Vibes.

  • Harris +1.0 points (New York Times)
    Harris +1.2 points (FiveThirtyEight)
    Harris +1.0 points (Nate Silver)
    Harris +1.5 points (The Economist)
    Harris +0.1 points (RealClearPolitics)
    Harris +1.4 points (Split Ticket)

  • 🔮 Final Forecasting Vibes.

  • Harris wins 50 times out of 100. (FiveThirtyEight)
    Harris wins 50 times out of 100. (Nate Silver)
    Harris wins 56 times out of 100. (The Economist)
    Harris wins 50 times out of 100. (JHK Forecasts)
    Harris wins 53 times out of 100. (Split Ticket)
    Trump wins 51 times out of 100. (270toWin)
    Trump wins 54 times out of 100. (The Hill)
    Harris wins 51 times out of 100. (Race to the White House)
    Harris wins 52 times out of 100. (Metaculus)
    Trump wins 58 times out of 100. (Election Betting Odds)

  • Editor’s note: Forecasts are probabilities, not certainties. They reflect the current vibes, not the final result.

1/ More than 83 million Americans voted early in the first presidential election since the Jan. 6, 2021, attack on the Capitol. Polls show the presidential race between Harris and Trump to be historically close and likely decided by a handful of voters in the seven battleground states: Michigan, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, Arizona, Nevada, Georgia, and North Carolina. Control of the House and Senate is also on the line with 435 House seats and 34 Senate seats up for grabs. Democrats need to flip four seats to win control of the House, while in the Senate the Republicans have a clear path for control. Voters in 10 states will decide whether to cement reproductive rights in their state constitutions. In 62 days, Kamala Harris will preside over a joint session of Congress. After counting the 2024 electoral votes, Harris will either declare herself the winner – marking the first woman elected president – or announce that Trump is returning to the White House as the second president to be elected to two nonconsecutive terms – and at 78 years old, the oldest person ever elected president. (Washington Post / New York Times / Associated Press / Bloomberg / Wall Street Journal / NBC News / The Guardian)

  • How the Election Could Unfold: Four Scenarios. “A look at plausible outcomes that might wind up seeming obvious in hindsight.” (New York Times)

  • Harris’s possible paths to victory. “Mapping the ways Harris can win.” (Washington Post)

  • Trump’s possible paths to victory. “Mapping the ways Trump can win.” (Washington Post)

  • How the World Is Prepping for a Trump or Harris Victory. “The outcome of the US election will have a major impact globally, from Ukraine and the Mideast to world trade.” (Bloomberg)

2/ Trump and Harris held competing rallies throughout the final day of campaigning, urging supporters to turn out for what is likely one of the closest presidential elections in modern history. In Pennsylvania, Harris said “America is ready for a fresh start, where we see our fellow Americans not as an enemy but as a neighbor.” She added: “We have an opportunity in this election to finally turn the page on a decade of politics that have been driven by fear and division.” Trump, in his third presidential campaign, closed by calling the United States an “occupied country,” threatened tariffs as high as 100% on Mexico, insulted Harris as a “low-IQ person,” portrayed undocumented immigrants as mentally ill criminals, and called those accused of crimes “savages” and “animals.” Harris said “the measure of a true leader is based not on who you beat down. It is based on who you lift up.” Neverthless, Trump claimed he was “running against an evil Democrat system” populated by “sick” and “evil people,” but “I think it’s too big to be rigged. They’ll try, and they are trying. You know that.” Trump all but called Nancy Pelosi, the former House speaker, a bitch, saying: “She’s an evil, sick, crazy bi- oh no. It starts with a ‘b,’ but I won’t say it. I want to say it!” JD Vance described Democratic leaders as “trash,” adding that “in two days we are going to take out the trash in Washington, D.C. And the trash’s name is Kamala Harris.” Elsewhere, Harris told supports “Our campaign has brought together people from all corners of this nation and from all walks of life, united by our love for our country and our faith in a brighter, stronger and more hopeful future that we will build together.” She added: “And tonight, we finish as we started, with optimism, with energy, with joy.” Trump, meanwhile, said: “This will be our final moment. I think we’ve got it under control […] It’s ours to lose. Does that make sense to you? It’s ours to lose […] This has been an incredible journey. It’s very sad in a way. This is the last one.” Harris concluded her day, telling her supporters: “One more day. And momentum is on our side.” The crowd chanted with Harris when she delivered her signature line: “We are not going back.” (New York Times / Washington Post / Washington Post / ABC News / NBC News / NPR / The Hill / Politico / Washington Post / New York Times / NBC News)

How to manage stress and maintain perspective on election night in one sentence: Surround yourself with supportive people; set realistic expectations for results; mentally prepare for any outcome; accept uncertainty and lack of control; know the possibility of significant polling error; limit social media and news refreshes; remind yourself of past resilience; focus on the bigger picture beyond this election; and have a plan for post-election activities that bring you joy.

  • 📅 From Election Day to Inauguration Day.

  • Nov. 26: Trump is sentenced.
    Dec. 11: Deadline for governors to certify the election and submit their slate of electors.
    Dec. 17: Electors cast a ballot to formally vote for president and VP.
    Jan. 6, 2025: Members of the 119th Congress count Electoral College ballots.
    Jan. 20: The 60th Presidential Inauguration.

Five years ago today: Day 1020: Orchestrated efforts.
Six years ago today: Day 655: Political stunt.