Day 1373: "What do the American people want?"
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The presidential election is 13 days away.
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📈 Polling Vibes.
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Harris +2.0 points (New York Times)
Harris +1.8 points (FiveThirtyEight)
Harris +1.6 points (Nate Silver)
Harris +1.5 points (The Economist)
Harris +0.6 points (RealClearPolitics)
Harris +1.9 points (Split Ticket) -
🔮 Forecasting Vibes.
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Trump wins 51 times out of 100. Harris wins 49 times out of 100. (FiveThirtyEight)
Trump wins 53 times out of 100. Harris wins 47 times out of 100. (Nate Silver)
Trump wins 56 times out of 100. Harris wins 44 times out of 100. (The Economist)
Trump wins 51 times out of 100. Harris wins 49 times out of 100. (JHK Forecasts)
Harris wins 53 times out of 100. Trump wins 47 times out of 100. (Split Ticket)
Harris wins 53 times out of 100. Trump wins 46 times out of 100. (CNalysis)
Trump wins 59 times out of 100. Harris wins 41 times out of 100. (Election Betting Odds) -
✅ Get election ready: Register to vote, update your address, or request an absentee ballot at Vote.org, TurboVote.org, RocktheVote.org, or VoteFromAbroad.org.
1/ Trump’s longest-serving chief of staff warned that Trump meets the definition of a “fascist” and once said he wanted the “kind of generals Hitler had.” John Kelly said Trump is “certainly an authoritarian [and] admires people who are dictators,” and that Trump “commented more than once that, ‘You know, Hitler did some good things, too.’” Trump also asked Kelly, “Why can’t you be like the German generals?” Kelly explained to Trump that German generals “tried to kill Hitler three times and almost pulled it off,” but Trump responded: “No, no, no, they were totally loyal to him.” Further, two people who heard a private conversation at the White House, Trump once said: “I need the kind of generals that Hitler had. People who were totally loyal to him, that follow orders.” Mark Esper, who served as secretary of Defense under Trump, backed Kelly’s remarks, saying “It’s hard to say that he doesn’t [meet the definition of a fascist], when you kind of look at those terms. But, he certainly has those inclinations. And I think it’s something we should be wary about.” (New York Times / The Atlantic / Politico / CNN / NBC News)
2/ Kamala Harris called Trump “increasingly unhinged and unstable,” warning that “in a second term, people like John Kelly would not be there to be the guardrails against his propensities and his actions. Those who once tried to stop him from pursuing his worst impulses would no longer be there, and no longer be there to rein him in.” Harris added that Trump “wants unchecked power. The question in 13 days will be, what do the American people want?” (Washington Post / Axios / NBC News / CNN / Associated Press / NPR)
- Nate Silver: Here’s What My Gut Says About the Election, but Don’t Trust Anyone’s Gut, Even Mine. “You should resign yourself to the fact that a 50-50 forecast really does mean 50-50. And you should be open to the possibility that those forecasts are wrong, and that could be the case equally in the direction of Mr. Trump or Ms. Harris.” (New York Times)
- James Carville: Three Reasons I’m Certain Kamala Harris Will Win. “The biggest reason Mr. Trump will lose is that the whole Republican Party has been on a losing streak since Mr. Trump took it over.” (New York Times)
- “Red Wave” Redux: Are GOP Polls Rigging the Averages in Trump’s Favor? “Polling by right-leaning firms has exploded this cycle. Maybe they want to be accurate—or maybe they’re trying to create a sense of momentum for Donald Trump.” (New Republic)
3/ The Justice Department warned Elon Musk that his $1 million sweepstakes giveaway to registered voters in swing states may violate federal law. It’s unclear, however, whether the Justice Department has determined that the giveaway is outright illegal. (ABC News / Bloomberg / The Guardian)
4/ A federal judge ordered Rudy Giuliani to turn over most of his possessions, including cash, jewelry and his New York apartment, as part of the $148 million defamation judgement he owes to two former Georgia election workers. Giuliani has seven days to turn over his possessions to a receivership controlled by Ruby Freeman and Shaye Moss. Once the transfers are made, the two election workers can begin selling the assets. Further, the judge also said the two could sue Trump for the $2 million he owes Giuliani in unpaid legal bills. (New York Times / NPR / Washington Post / CBS News / CNBC)