• The presidential election is 12 days away.

  • 📈 Polling Vibes.

  • Harris +1.0 points (New York Times)
    Harris +1.7 points (FiveThirtyEight)
    Harris +1.3 points (Nate Silver)
    Harris +1.4 points (The Economist)
    Harris +0.2 points (RealClearPolitics)
    Harris +1.8 points (Split Ticket)

  • 🔮 Forecasting Vibes.

  • Trump wins 51 times out of 100. Harris wins 48 times out of 100. (FiveThirtyEight)
    Trump wins 54 times out of 100. Harris wins 46 times out of 100. (Nate Silver)
    Trump wins 53 times out of 100. Harris wins 47 times out of 100. (The Economist)
    Trump wins 51 times out of 100. Harris wins 49 times out of 100. (JHK Forecasts)
    Harris wins 53 times out of 100. Trump wins 47 times out of 100. (Split Ticket)
    Harris wins 53 times out of 100. Trump wins 46 times out of 100. (CNalysis)
    Trump wins 59 times out of 100. Harris wins 40 times out of 100. (Election Betting Odds)

  • Editor’s note: Forecasts are probabilities, not certainties. They reflect the current vibes, and not the final result.

  • ✅ Get election ready: Register to vote, update your address, or request an absentee ballot at Vote.org, TurboVote.org, RocktheVote.org, or VoteFromAbroad.org.

1/ Kamala Harris called Trump a fascist, saying “the American people deserve better, and they deserve a president who is focused on solutions, not sitting in the Oval Office plotting their revenge and retribution.” When asked at a CNN town hall if she believed that Trump is a fascist, Harris replied twice, “Yes, I do.” Later, she brought it up again, saying Trump would be “a president who admires dictators and is a fascist.” Harris added that even Trump’s senior military leaders have called Tump a fascist – including the former chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, Gen. Mark Milley, and Trump’s former White House chief of staff, retired Marine general John Kelly – saying they “have all called him unfit and dangerous.” Trump, meanwhile, called Kelly a “lowlife” and “total degenerate” after his former White House chief of staff spoke about Trump’s admiration for the Nazi leader Adolf Hitler. (Associated Press / Axios / New York Times / CNN / Axios / Politico)

2/ Trump vowed to “fire” Special Counsel Jack Smith – who brought two federal indictments against him – “within two seconds” of taking office. “It’s so easy — I would fire him within two seconds,” Trump said, saying he got “immunity at the Supreme Court” for his criminal acts committed while in office. Smith was appointed by Attorney General Merrick Garland to oversee two investigations: Trump’s efforts to overturn the results of the 2020 election, and the illegal retention of classified documents after leaving office. Trump has since been indicted by a federal grand jury on four criminal counts in the election investigation, including conspiracy to defraud the United States; conspiracy to obstruct an official proceeding; obstruction of and attempting to obstruct an official proceeding; and conspiracy against rights. Trump was also indicted by a federal grand jury on 40 felony counts with 40 felony counts alleging he willfully kept classified material after he left the White House and then obstructed the government’s repeated efforts to get them back. If Trump wins the election, he is expected to fire Garland and appoint an attorney general who would dismiss both federal cases against him. (Washington Post / NBC News / New York Times / Associated Press / Politico / Wall Street Journal / Bloomberg / The Guardian / The Hill / USA Today)

  • Trump Abused His Pardon Power. He’s Promising to Do It Again. “Trump has pledged to pardon people charged with crimes connected to January 6 and, if he wins, he’s expected to claim power to order the DOJ to drop the two federal cases against him. And he appears prepared to use his power to block federal charges against federal officials who commit alleged crimes in service of his goals.” (Mother Jones)
  • House Republicans on the committee that oversees elections hired two former Trump officials involved in 2020 fake elector scheme. “The Committee on House Administration, which usually flies under the radar, also plays an important role on January 6 when Congress certifies the election. If Republicans maintain control of the House, the panel’s chairman, Rep. Bryan Steil of Wisconsin, is expected to be one of the four lawmakers sitting at the dais reading electoral votes, and his staff will be advising members about the procedures taking place.” (CNN)
  • If Trump Wins, Blame the Billionaires. “More than 60 billionaires have opened their wallets to help elect Donald Trump.” (Slate)

3/ A former model accused Trump of groping her in 1993 at Trump Tower after Jeffrey Epstein introduced them. Stacey Williams said she felt Trump’s actions were part of a “twisted game” he and Epstein were playing with her. “It became very clear then that he and Donald were really, really good friends and spent a lot of time together,” Williams said. According to her recollection, Epstein introduced Williams to Trump at a 1992 Christmas party, and a few months later Epstein asked her to accompany him on a visit to Trump Tower. Trump greeted Williams, pulled her toward him and started groping her “all over my breasts.” More than two dozen women have accused Trump of sexual misconduct. (The Guardian / HuffPost / Variety / New York Magazine)

4/ The 60-year-old man suspected of shooting at an Arizona Democratic National Committee office three times over the last two months had over 120 guns, over 250,000 rounds of ammunition, and a grenade launcher in his home. Deputy Maricopa County Attorney Neha Bhatia said that authorities believe Jeffrey Michael Kelly, who also hung bags of white powder labeled as poison from political signs, “was preparing to commit an act of mass casualty,” and that his “progression of violence was escalating.” Kelly is charged with several felonies, including committing an act of terrorism, unlawful discharge of a firearm and shooting at a non-residential structure. (CBS News / NBC News / AZ Central)

5/ The world is on course for a “catastrophic” temperature rise of more than 3C above pre-industrial levels – twice the goal set by the Paris agreement. The latest “Emissions Gap Report,” which the UN Environment Program publishes, found that the world is currently headed for about 2.6C to 3.1C (4.68F to 5.58F) of warming by 2100 compared to preindustrial levels if governments do not take greater action to cut planet-warming emissions. The latest research also found that the ability to remain within the target of 1.5C “will be gone within a few years” without rapid action. The world has currently warmed by about 1.3C (2.3F). (Politico / Financial Times / Axios / Reuters / BBC)

  • The climate stakes of the Harris-Trump election. “The next administration will be decisive for the country’s progress on critical climate goals. By 2030, just a year after the next president would leave office, the U.S. has committed to reduce greenhouse gas emissions by 50 to 52 percent below 2005 levels, and expects to supply up to 13 million electric vehicles annually. A little further down the line, though no less critical, the country’s climate goals include reaching 100 percent carbon-free electricity by 2035 and achieving a net-zero emissions economy by 2050.” (Grist)